Mese: Dicembre 2023

© Reuters. Midday movers: Tesla, Coinbase, Fisker, and more

Investing.com – Main U.S. indexes declined on the final trading day of 2023, pulling back from recent highs. Megacap tech ended the year on a sour note but was among the best performing groups overall this year.

Here are some of the biggest U.S. stock movers today:

Fisker (NYSE:FSR) stock climbed 18% after it announced a plan to accelerate sales and deliveries. Fisker also revealed plans to expand the number of test-drive events held in both the U.S. and Europe.

Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) declined after Nomura/Instinet analysts downgraded the stock to ‘reduce’ from ‘neutral’ with a price target of $13, citing difficult fundamentals.

Uber (NYSE:UBER) declined after Nomura/Instinet analysts downgraded the stock to ‘neutral’ from ‘buy’ with a price target of $62, citing valuation and lack of catalysts.

Jabil (JBL) stock fell 1% after it lowered its forecast for the second quarter.

Coinbase (NASDAQ:COIN) shares gave up recent gains, declining 7% as the price of Bitcoin edged lower. Marathon Digital (NASDAQ:MARA) stock declined 12%, Microstrategy (NASDAQ:MSTR) declined 5.5% and Riot Platforms (NASDAQ:RIOT) declined 11%.

Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) stock declined 2.1%, falling for the second day in a row ahead of the release of production and delivery numbers next week. It was the worst performing Mag 7 stock, followed by Meta Platforms (NASDAQ:META), down 1.4%.

Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) declined 9% as investors sold high volatility stocks given the risk-off mood.

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Four thousand U.S. dollars are counted out by a banker counting currency at a bank in Westminster, Colorado November 3, 2009. REUTERS/Rick Wilking/File Photo

By Karen Brettell and Samuel Indyk

NEW YORK/LONDON (Reuters) – The dollar is set to end 2023 with its first loss since 2020 against the euro and a basket of currencies on expectations the U.S. Federal Reserve will begin cutting rates next year as inflation moderates.

Questions for 2024 will be when the Fed begins cuts, and whether the first rate reduction is made to avoid over-tightening as inflation drops, or due to rapidly slowing U.S. economic growth.

With markets already pricing in aggressive cuts, debate is also focused on how much further the dollar is likely to fall.

“We’ve already weakened quite a bit in anticipation of a Fed cut cycle to come,” said Brad Bechtel, global head of FX at Jefferies in New York.

The dollar’s decline accelerated after the Fed adopted an unexpectedly dovish tone and forecast 75 basis points in rate reductions for 2024 at its December policy meeting.

Markets are pricing in even more aggressive cuts, with the first reduction seen likely in March and 154 basis points in cuts expected by year-end.

The Fed’s tone contrasted other major central banks, including the European Central Bank (ECB) and Bank of England (BoE), which maintained they will hold rates higher for longer.

But “I do think they will capitulate. European growth is just struggling too much and inflation’s coming down relatively fast… same in the U.K. in many ways,” said Bechtel. “If all three central banks are cutting, it’s going to be very hard for the dollar to weaken significantly.”

Against a basket of currencies, the greenback was little changed on Friday at 101.18, rising from a five-month trough of 100.61 reached on Thursday. It is on track to lose 2.23% this year.

The euro gained 0.07% to $1.1069, hovering just below a five-month peak of $1.11395 reached on Thursday. It is heading for a 3.31% gain for the year, its first positive year since 2020.

“Markets are looking for a cut earlier in the U.S. and are less certain that the European Central Bank will cut as quickly, so that’s why the dollar is very soft,” said Niels Christensen, chief analyst at Nordea.

“We also have positive risk appetite which is another negative for the dollar. Going into 2024, the soft dollar will be a theme towards the March central bank meetings,” Christensen added.

Policymakers at the ECB and the BoE did not signal any imminent rate cuts at their policy meetings this month, but traders are pricing in 161 bps of cuts by the ECB next year, with the probability of two cuts by April. The BofE is also expected to cut rates by 148 bps in 2024.

“While it feels like the market might have moved too far too fast, the facts are that growth is non-existent in Europe, slowing in the U.S., and inflation is falling globally,” said CJ Cowan, portfolio manager at Quilter Investors.

“The ECB is famously slow to change policy course so almost two cuts priced by April looks aggressive, even if it might be the right thing to do.”

Sterling was little changed on the day at $1.2733 and on track for a 5.29% yearly gain, its best performance since 2017.

YEN IS AN OUTLIER

The dollar is expected to post at 7.91% gain against the yen as the Japanese currency stays under pressure from the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) ultra-loose monetary policy stance.

Market expectations are for the BOJ to exit negative interest rates in 2024, though the central bank continues to stand by its dovish line and has provided little clues on if, and how, such a scenario could play out.

“The outlook for Japan is encouraging going into 2024, with expectations of robust economic growth and improving inflation that shows signs of being sustainable,” said Aadish Kumar, international economist at T. Rowe Price.

That said, even if the BOJ hikes rates into positive territory, they will still remain much lower than in the United States.

“For all of 2024, if they got to positive 50 basis points I would be kind of surprised, but maybe that happens, and if the Fed gives us three rate cuts, you’re still looking at an interest rate differential of roughly 4.5% or so, which makes the yen very expensive to own,” said Jefferies’ Bechtel.

The yen is a popular funding currency, and investors use proceeds from shorting the yen to purchase other assets.

Bitcoin rose 0.8% to $42,922. It is on track for a 159% gain this year.

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Currency bid prices at 10:00AM (1500 GMT)

Description RIC Last U.S. Close Pct Change YTD Pct High Bid Low Bid

Previous Change

Session

Dollar index 101.1800 101.2000 -0.01% -2.232% +101.4200 +101.0900

Euro/Dollar $1.1069 $1.1062 +0.07% +3.31% +$1.1084 +$1.1044

Dollar/Yen 141.4700 141.4050 +0.05% +7.91% +141.9100 +141.1500

Euro/Yen 156.61 156.43 +0.12% +11.63% +156.9200 +156.2800

Dollar/Swiss 0.8378 0.8448 -0.82% -9.39% +0.8446 +0.8357

Sterling/Dollar $1.2733 $1.2735 -0.01% +5.29% +$1.2772 +$1.2702

Dollar/Canadian 1.3223 1.3229 -0.04% -2.40% +1.3265 +1.3222

Aussie/Dollar $0.6817 $0.6829 -0.18% +0.01% +$0.6846 +$0.6782

Euro/Swiss 0.9273 0.9342 -0.74% -6.29% +0.9347 +0.9255

Euro/Sterling 0.8691 0.8686 +0.06% -1.73% +0.8701 +0.8669

NZ $0.6333 $0.6333 -0.01% -0.28% +$0.6359 +$0.6306

Dollar/Dollar

Dollar/Norway 10.1260 10.2060 -0.74% +3.22% +10.1990 +10.1300

Euro/Norway 11.2122 11.2800 -0.60% +6.85% +11.2899 +11.1950

Dollar/Sweden 10.0510 9.9876 +0.71% -3.43% +10.0612 +9.9688

Euro/Sweden 11.1269 11.0484 +0.71% -0.20% +11.1295 +11.0395

© Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Traders work on the floor at the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) in New York City, U.S., December 15, 2023. REUTERS/Brendan McDermid/File Photo

By Stephen Culp

NEW YORK (Reuters) -U.S. stocks closed modestly lower on Friday, the last trading day of 2023, capping a robust year-end rally as investors eyed easier monetary policy in the year ahead.

The stock market has seen remarkable upward momentum in the closing months of the year, powering all three major indexes to monthly, quarterly and annual gains.

For the year, all three posted double-digit growth.

“On January of this year, 363 days ago, if I said I think the S&P is going to gain more than 20% in 2023, you would have put me into the slightly nutty category,” said Oliver Pursche, senior vice president at Wealthspire Advisors, in New York. “There’s certainly reason to be pleased this year and there’s reason for optimism going into 2024.”

Even so, all three major U.S. stock indexes ended the session lower.

“There’s really no reason for today’s small sell-off,” Pursche added. “There’s no news that’s driving it.”

“I would ascribe it to last-minute portfolio changes, profit taking as we enter the new year, and perhaps some rebalancing.”

Smallcaps came to life in the last months of the year, with the Russell 2000 roaring back from a year-to-date loss of 7.1% as of late October to end the year with a 15.1% annual gain.

The S&P 500, the Dow and the Nasdaq have booked nine consecutive weekly gains — the longest weekly winning streak for the S&P 500 since January 2004, and the longest for the Dow and the Nasdaq since early 2019.

The S&P 500 is still drifting within 1% of its record closing high reached on Jan. 3 2022. Closing above that level – 4,796.56 – would confirm the bellwether index entered a bull market when it touched its bear market trough in October 2022.

It was a tumultuous year marked by the U.S. banking crisis in March, an artificial intelligence stocks boom, oil supply jitters stemming from the Israel-Hamas war and fears that restrictive Fed policy could tilt the U.S. economy into recession.

Falling interest rates helped spark a remarkable year-end rally, which shifted into overdrive in December when the Federal Reserve opened the door to U.S. interest rate cuts in 2024 after a rate hike campaign that helped bring inflation down toward the central bank’s 2% annual target.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20.56 points, or 0.05%, to 37,689.54, the S&P 500 lost 13.52 points, or 0.28%, to 4,769.83 and the Nasdaq Composite dropped 83.78 points, or 0.56%, to 15,011.35.

Of the 11 major sectors of the S&P 500 real estate posted the largest percentage loss. Consumer staples and healthcare were the only gainers.

For the year, technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary were the outperformers, with utilities, energy and consumer staples losing ground.

Among corporate movers, Uber Technologies (NYSE:UBER) fell 2.5% and Lyft (NASDAQ:LYFT) lost 3.5%, following a report that Nomura downgraded the ride-sharing platforms.

Markets will be closed on Monday, Jan. 1 for New Year’s Day.

Declining issues outnumbered advancing ones on the NYSE by a 2.46-to-1 ratio; on Nasdaq, a 2.41-to-1 ratio favored decliners.

The S&P 500 posted 31 new 52-week highs and no new lows; the Nasdaq Composite recorded 87 new highs and 53 new lows.

Volume on U.S. exchanges was 10.58 billion shares, compared with the 12.43 billion average for the full session over the last 20 trading days.

© Reuters. Stock Trader’s Almanac warns January tends to be softer in Election years

Stock Trader’s Almanac analysts reflected on the stock market’s historical performance in January, which is one of the most important months in the context of indicators and seasonalities.

Accordingly, January holds a significant place in Wall Street’s calendar, traditionally marked by a surge in cash from year-end bonuses and annual allocations, propelling stocks higher.

Notably, January takes the lead for NASDAQ since 1971, though it ranks sixth for the S&P 500 and DJIA since 1950. Despite its historical prominence, rankings slipped from 2000 to 2022 due to various economic challenges.

The month witnessed downturns during 2008-2010, 2014-2016, and 2020-2022, with January 2009 marking the worst on record for DJIA and S&P 500.

While January typically starts positively, with gains in the first half, historical patterns indicate a tendency for weakness in the latter part of the month over the past 21 years.

“In election years, Januarys have been weaker. DJIA and S&P 500 slip to number #8 and DJIA average performance dips negative. NASDAQ slips to #4, but average performance remains respectable at 1.7%,” analysts said.

Stock Trader’s Almanac’s flagship indicator, “The January Barometer,” suggests that the performance of the S&P 500 in January sets the tone for the entire year.

“The full-month January Barometer has a softer record in election years with 12 of the last 18 full years following January’s direction,” they added.

Over the long term, the barometer boasts an impressive 83.6% accuracy rate, making it a reliable indicator. Since 1950, there have been just 12 major errors in its predictions.

© Reuters. Wells Fargo says S&P 500 ‘will struggle to post gains early in 2024’

Speculation about a “Santa Claus rally” dominates financial discussions every December, irrespective of the market’s annual performance.

Along these lines, Wells Fargo strategists remind investors that the S&P 500 Index has already surged by almost 16% since late October and boasts a phenomenal 24% year-to-date increase.

Traditionally, the official timeframe for a Santa Claus rally is the week between Christmas and New Year’s Day, a period we’re currently in.

According to Stock Trader’s Almanac, December ranks as the third-strongest month for stock-market performance over the past 70 years.

The ongoing equity market surge, akin to a Santa Claus visit, has been consistent, making this festive season one filled with financial cheer.

“We really do not want to step in front of Santa’s gift-laden sleigh. It appears the rally could very well put the S&P 500 Index at or very near an all-time record high as we close out the year,” Wells Fargo strategists wrote.

Still, the strategists warn traders that currently “the S&P 500 Index is well ahead of what we consider fair value as it trades near the top of our 2024 year-end target range.”

“Current valuations, based on our earnings estimate for next year ($220), are quite stretched,” the strategists added.

As a result, the strategists believe the S&P 500 “will struggle to post meaningful gains in the first part of the year while the economy continues to slow and before it bottoms out, which we believe will happen in 2024.”

“We also believe that the market consensus for five or six Federal Reserve rate cuts starting in March is too optimistic. We believe these two factors likely will produce volatility until the consensus accounts for these negative trends, which appear to be at the bottom of Santa’s sleigh heading into year-end,” the strategists added.

Wells Fargo’s strategy is based on a preference for domestic over international exposure, emphasizing quality large-cap stocks over mid and small caps.

A strategic move involves reducing exposure in Information Technology, Communication Services, and Consumer Discretionary sectors to align with recommended allocations.

The reallocation of funds is advised in favor of sectors such as Health Care, Industrials, and Materials, ensuring a balanced and diversified investment approach.

© Reuters. A woman looks at an electronic board showing Japan’s stock price index at the Tokyo Stock Exchange in Tokyo February 6, 2013. REUTERS/Toru Hanai/Files

By Lawrence Delevingne and Alun John

(Reuters) -Global shares pulled back on the last trading day of the year but notched their biggest annual rise since 2019, while U.S. Treasuries finished the year broadly where they started after major swings for the benchmark in 2023.

Shares around the world have risen sharply in the last two months of the year as benchmark bond yields fell on expectations of central bank rate cuts in 2024.

“In a slow holiday week, there was little to change the backdrop of resilient if slowing activity, underlying inflation still stuck around 3-4%, but a Fed that will be cutting rates regardless in 2024,” Citi analysts wrote in a note Friday.

The S&P 500 fell about 0.3% on Friday, just shy of its record closing high reached on Jan. 3, 2022. The index finished up about 24% this year, thanks to a massive rally in megacap tech stocks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite both dipped on Friday but were 13.7% and 43.4% higher for the year, respectively.

European shares ended 2023 with an annual gain of almost 13% on hopes of softer monetary policy from major central banks next year, while MSCI’s world share index posted a 20% gain, its most in four years.

“We have eaten a lot of the returns that were expected in 2024. The positive momentum in markets is obviously associated with the fall in yields, and so now the question is, how long can this trend continue?” said Samy Chaar, chief economist at Lombard Odier.

Chaar said future returns “are probably more moderate” than they were at the beginning of November, but if long-term U.S. interest rates settle around 3.5% or 4%, there is “little danger of a big U-turn”, and continued corporate profits might add “a few percent of upside”.

The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield was at 3.866%, up 1.6 basis points on the day and right around its level at the start of the year.

That yearly performance masks some major swings, as the note’s yield reached 5.021% in October, its highest since 2007, before retreating and driving the share rally.

Behind the move lower in yields has been a sustained decline in inflation around the world that has driven expectations that central banks will cut interest rates early next year. The U.S. economy has remained strong, feeding hopes for a “soft landing”.

Markets are now expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to start rate cuts in March, according to the CME FedWatch tool, a shift from assumptions just last month.

Traders are also pricing in more than 150 basis points of easing next year by the Fed, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England.

CHINESE UNDERPERFORMANCE

Chinese markets underperformed in 2023, despite optimism at the start of the year when Beijing ended its zero-COVID policy.

Both Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index and China’s onshore blue chip index lost more than 10% in the year on waning investor confidence in the world’s second largest economy. Those losses compare to Japan’s Nikkei 225 Index, which gained 28% on the year. [.SS]

In the currency markets, the dollar ticked up on Friday but suffered a roughly 2% decline in 2023 after two years of strong gains, with declines mirroring the fall in U.S. yields. [FRX/]

In commodities, Chicago wheat and corn futures saw their biggest annual drop in a decade as easing supply bottlenecks in the Black Sea region and higher production weighed on prices. [GRA/]

Oil prices were due to end 2023 down 10% after a year of wild swings driven by geopolitical concerns, production cuts and global measures to rein in inflation.

On Friday, U.S. crude fell 0.57% to $71.36 per barrel and Brent was at $77.08, down 0.09% on the day. [O/R]

Gold prices ticked down on Friday to $2,062 an ounce as they headed towards their best year since 2020, buoyed by hopes the U.S. Federal Reserve could cut interest rates as early as March. [GOL/]

© Reuters. A bullish 2024 year of AI awaits claims Wedbush

Wedbush analysts said the firm believes the tech sector is set up for an acceleration around cloud and AI spending that is still being significantly underestimated by the Street.

The bullish tech analysts declared that “a bullish 2024 year of AI awaits,” with cloud and AI-driven spending forecast to be up 20%-25% over the next year, “with use cases now exploding across the enterprise and consumer landscape.”

“In our opinion, the new tech bull market has now begun, and tech stocks are set up for a strong 2024 with tech stocks we expect to be up 25% over the next year, led by Big Tech as the AI spending tidal wave hits the shores of the broader tech sector,” the analysts said. “We believe now the rest of the tech sector joins the Magnificent 7 party in this rally into 2024 with AI tailwinds abound.”

The firm claims that its recent checks in the field have shown that AI monetization has begun to positively impact the tech sector, with Nvidia, Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Google, Datadog, and Palantir (NYSE:PLTR) all showing AI use cases are multiplying across the enterprise and consumer landscape.

As stated in previous notes, the analysts said they “view AI as the most transformative technology trend since the start of the Internet in 1995 and believe many on the Street are still underestimating the $1 trillion of AI spend set to happen over the next decade in a bonanza for the chip and software sectors looking forward with Nvidia and Redmond leading the way.”

Webush’s favored tech names are still Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL), Microsoft (MSFT), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL), Palo Alto Networks (NASDAQ:PANW), Palantir (PLTR), Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS), CyberArk Software (NASDAQ:CYBR), CrowdStrike Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ:CRWD), and MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB).