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World leaders join Ukraine summit in test of Kyiv’s peace push

By Thomas Escritt and Dave Graham

BUERGENSTOCK, Switzerland (Reuters) -World leaders gathered at a Swiss Alpine resort on Saturday to seek broader consensus for Ukraine’s peace proposals at a summit shunned by China and dismissed as a waste of time by Russia, which pushed its own rival ceasefire plans from afar.

More than 90 countries took part, but China’s absence in particular dimmed hopes the summit would show Russia as globally isolated, while recent military reverses have put Kyiv on the back foot. The war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also diverted the world’s attention from Ukraine.

The talks focused on broader concerns triggered by the war, such as food and nuclear security. But Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both mooted hosts for another such event, said meaningful progress required Russia’s participation.

A draft of a final summit declaration, seen by Reuters, blames Russia’s “war” in Ukraine for causing “large-scale human suffering and destruction” and urges Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected.

The document, dated June 13, also calls for Kyiv to regain control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and access to its sea ports. The draft had deleted an earlier reference to Russian “aggression” where “war” is cited.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy trumpeted the summit’s attendance as a success and predicted “history being made.”

“Today is the day when the world begins to bring a just peace closer,” he told leaders assembled around a giant rectangular table.

U.S. President Joe Biden sent his deputy Kamala Harris to represent him – a decision that had riled Kyiv.

Harris announced more than $1.5 billion in energy and humanitarian aid for Ukraine, where infrastructure has been pounded by Russian airstrikes since the 2022 full-scale invasion.

On the eve of the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would end the war if Kyiv agreed to drop its NATO ambitions and hand over four provinces claimed by Moscow. The conditions apparently reflected Moscow’s growing confidence its forces have the upper hand.

But they were swiftly rejected by Ukraine and its allies.

“He’s calling for surrender,” Harris said, adding: “Let nothing about the end of this war be decided without Ukraine.”

“Freezing the conflict today, with foreign troops occupying Ukrainian land, is not the answer. It is a recipe for future wars of aggression,” added European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

CHINA AND RUSSIA

China said it would boycott the event after Russia was frozen out of the process, with the U.S. suggesting Beijing’s decision was taken at Moscow’s behest.

“Putin has no interest in a genuine peace,” said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

“He has launched a sustained diplomatic campaign against this summit ordering countries to stay away, spinning a phoney narrative about his willingness to negotiate.”

Avoiding some of the most difficult issues, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz compared the summit to “a small plant that needs watering, nurturing and delicate care” that would yield results further down the line.

But countries including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kenya noted Russia’s absence as a hurdle.

“I must also note that this summit could have been more result-oriented if the other party to the conflict, Russia, was present in the room,” said Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said credible talks would involve “difficult compromise”.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer saw an opportunity to start building a broader global consensus to pressure Russia.

“It’s like we’re in a Western echo chamber. That is: all Western European countries, the USA, we agree on what we want to happen with Ukraine,” Nehammer said. “But that alone is not enough.”

Calls for Russia to be at the table will only get stronger over time, said Bob Deen, senior research fellow at the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute think-tank.

“There is a risk that if Ukraine waits too long, it might end up with rival formats popping up. It may risk losing the initiative,” Deen told a forum on the summit’s sidelines.

Supporters of Ukraine marked the talks with a series of events in the nearby city of Lucerne to draw attention to the war’s humanitarian costs.

Dozens of Ukrainian refugees from choirs around Switzerland converged in a public square to sing Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy.”

Earlier about 250 people gathered in the centre of the city, many wrapped in Ukrainian flags, wearing traditional clothes and carrying pictures of missing brothers, husbands or sons as they shared their stories.

“I’m clinging to the idea that my husband is still alive,” said Svitlana Bilous, the wife of a soldier who has been missing for more than 14 months. “That’s what keeps me going.”

 

China Premier Li starts Australia trip with Adelaide panda announcement, winery visit

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Sunday that China Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia was “really important” in showing stabilised ties between the two countries, after Li, China’s second-highest ranked official, arrived in Adelaide on Saturday.

Li touched down in the South Australia state capital late on Saturday, saying bilateral relations were “back on track” as he started a four-day visit to Australia, the first trip by a Chinese premier to the major trading partner in seven years.

China imposed trade restrictions on a raft of Australian agricultural and mineral products in 2020 during a diplomatic dispute that has now largely eased.

“This is obviously a really important visit, it’s the first visit in seven years by the Chinese premier,” Wong told Australian Broadcasting Corp. television on Sunday morning.

“It comes after two years of very deliberate, very patient work by this government to bring about a stabilisation of the relationship.”

In Adelaide on Sunday, Li is expected to visit a pair of pandas on loan from China to Adelaide’s zoo, then have lunch with wine exporters until recently shut out of the Chinese market in a dispute that suspended A$20 billion ($13 billion) in Australian agriculture and mineral exports last year.

Li will also visit the capital Canberra and iron-ore rich mining state Western Australia on the stopover.

Australia is the biggest supplier of iron ore to China, which has been an investor in Australian mining projects, though some recent Chinese investment in critical minerals has been blocked by Australia on national interest grounds.

Li arrived from New Zealand, where he highlighted Chinese demand for New Zealand’s agricultural products.

China is the biggest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand. Canberra and Wellington are seeking to balance trade with regional security concerns over China’s ambitions in the Pacific Islands.

 

Biden slams Supreme Court at $28 million fundraiser with Obama, Clooney, Julia Roberts

By Nandita Bose

(Reuters) -President Joe Biden will attend a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles on Saturday with top Hollywood celebrities and former President Barack Obama that has raised $28 million, amid Democratic anxiety over opponent Donald Trump’s growing fundraising clout.

Late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel will interview Biden and Obama and Hollywood celebrities George Clooney and Julia Roberts are guests, in the latest star-studded event Biden’s campaign hopes shows strength and momentum despite Biden’s low approval ratings and concerns about his age.

Biden landed in Los Angeles on Saturday morning after attending a meeting of world leaders in Italy on Friday.

“This will be one of the biggest fundraisers we’ve had,” said Ajay Jain Bhutoria, deputy finance chair at the Democratic National Committee. “We are expecting an unprecedented turnout from the entertainment industry,” he said.

A Biden campaign spokeswoman said “$28 mln heading into President Biden’s LA fundraiser – and counting. This is the largest Democratic fundraiser in history.”

The Biden campaign outraised the $26 million a March fundraiser in New York City generated where Stephen Colbert hosted Biden, Obama and Bill Clinton. The top-ticket package for the LA event costs $500,000, campaign officials said.

Other celebrities expected on Saturday night in LA include Jack Black, Jason Bateman, Kathryn Hahn and Sheryl Lee Ralph.

In recent weeks, Mark Hamill of Star Wars fame made a White House briefing room appearance to praise the president, Robert DeNiro showed up in lower Manhattan for a press conference at the Biden campaign’s behest and Steven Spielberg has been helping the Biden campaign with storytelling.

Actor Michael Douglas held a fundraiser for the president and artists Queen Latifah, Lenny Kravitz, Lizzo, James Taylor, Christina Aguilera and Barbra Streisand have all performed to help Biden raise money.

Biden campaign’s fundraising in April lagged rival Donald Trump’s for the first time, after the former president ramped up his joint operation with the Republican National Committee and headlined high-dollar fundraisers.

Democrats still maintained an overall cash advantage over Trump and the Biden campaign continues to have a considerably larger war chest.

Biden and Trump are tied in national polls with less than five months to go before the Nov. 5 election, while Trump has the edge in the battleground states that will decide the election, recent polls show. On economic issues like inflation, Trump scores higher with voters overall than Biden.

Democrats have long counted on the liberal Los Angeles area as a rich source of financial backing. Republicans often decry Democrats nationwide as funded by Hollywood elites and California liberals.

But the state’s donors bankroll presidential campaigns on both sides of the aisle. Biden and Trump have both raised more in the state for their reelection bids than anywhere else, according to fundraising disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Biden raised $24 million through April 30 in California, and Trump $11.7 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.

The president was largely unable to host high-dollar Hollywood fundraisers for much of 2023 because of industry strikes. But since they were resolved, Biden has headlined several fundraisers in the state, including one in December where top tickets approached $1 million.

 

Why this beauty stock is a new top pick at Oppenheimer

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

© 2007-2024 – Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.

 

Summer oil rally possible but market may look past it: Macquarie

Macquarie analysts acknowledge the possibility of a summer crude oil rally but caution that the market might not be swayed in a note Friday.

They maintain a structurally bearish view of crude oil prices despite potential short-term upward pressure.

“[A] summer rally [is] possible, but [the] market may look past it, and draws could disappoint,” Macquarie states. The firm highlights surplus concerns in the second half of 2024 and throughout 2025, which could lead to a significant price correction.

While acknowledging geopolitical risks and potential for a hot summer boosting demand, Macquarie identifies several negative drivers. They express concern about OPEC+ compliance with production quotas, particularly in the context of US election year dynamics. Additionally, they foresee continued growth in non-OPEC oil production, including from the United States, potentially dampening prices.

Macquarie also tempers enthusiasm for potential production increases from new sources like the Dangote Refinery and Dos Bocas facilities, suggesting their ramp-up might be slower than anticipated. Finally, the report suggests China’s oil demand, particularly for diesel, is becoming less sensitive to economic growth, further limiting upside potential.

Overall, Macquarie’s analysis suggests a cautious approach to the possibility of a summer oil rally. They believe structural factors could lead to a price correction despite potential short-term upward pressure.

 

World leaders join Ukraine summit in test of Kyiv’s peace push

By Thomas Escritt and Dave Graham

BUERGENSTOCK, Switzerland (Reuters) -World leaders gathered at a Swiss Alpine resort on Saturday to seek broader consensus for Ukraine’s peace proposals at a summit shunned by China and dismissed as a waste of time by Russia, which pushed its own rival ceasefire plans from afar.

More than 90 countries took part, but China’s absence in particular dimmed hopes the summit would show Russia as globally isolated, while recent military reverses have put Kyiv on the back foot. The war in Gaza between Israel and Hamas has also diverted the world’s attention from Ukraine.

The talks focused on broader concerns triggered by the war, such as food and nuclear security. But Turkey and Saudi Arabia, both mooted hosts for another such event, said meaningful progress required Russia’s participation.

A draft of a final summit declaration, seen by Reuters, blames Russia’s “war” in Ukraine for causing “large-scale human suffering and destruction” and urges Ukraine’s territorial integrity to be respected.

The document, dated June 13, also calls for Kyiv to regain control of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant and access to its sea ports. The draft had deleted an earlier reference to Russian “aggression” where “war” is cited.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy trumpeted the summit’s attendance as a success and predicted “history being made.”

“Today is the day when the world begins to bring a just peace closer,” he told leaders assembled around a giant rectangular table.

U.S. President Joe Biden sent his deputy Kamala Harris to represent him – a decision that had riled Kyiv.

Harris announced more than $1.5 billion in energy and humanitarian aid for Ukraine, where infrastructure has been pounded by Russian airstrikes since the 2022 full-scale invasion.

On the eve of the summit, Russian President Vladimir Putin said Russia would end the war if Kyiv agreed to drop its NATO ambitions and hand over four provinces claimed by Moscow. The conditions apparently reflected Moscow’s growing confidence its forces have the upper hand.

But they were swiftly rejected by Ukraine and its allies.

“He’s calling for surrender,” Harris said, adding: “Let nothing about the end of this war be decided without Ukraine.”

“Freezing the conflict today, with foreign troops occupying Ukrainian land, is not the answer. It is a recipe for future wars of aggression,” added European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen.

CHINA AND RUSSIA

China said it would boycott the event after Russia was frozen out of the process, with the U.S. suggesting Beijing’s decision was taken at Moscow’s behest.

“Putin has no interest in a genuine peace,” said British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak.

“He has launched a sustained diplomatic campaign against this summit ordering countries to stay away, spinning a phoney narrative about his willingness to negotiate.”

Avoiding some of the most difficult issues, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz compared the summit to “a small plant that needs watering, nurturing and delicate care” that would yield results further down the line.

But countries including Turkey, Saudi Arabia and Kenya noted Russia’s absence as a hurdle.

“I must also note that this summit could have been more result-oriented if the other party to the conflict, Russia, was present in the room,” said Turkey’s foreign minister, Hakan Fidan.

Saudi Arabia’s Foreign Minister Prince Faisal bin Farhan Al Saud said credible talks would involve “difficult compromise”.

Austrian Chancellor Karl Nehammer saw an opportunity to start building a broader global consensus to pressure Russia.

“It’s like we’re in a Western echo chamber. That is: all Western European countries, the USA, we agree on what we want to happen with Ukraine,” Nehammer said. “But that alone is not enough.”

Calls for Russia to be at the table will only get stronger over time, said Bob Deen, senior research fellow at the Netherlands-based Clingendael Institute think-tank.

“There is a risk that if Ukraine waits too long, it might end up with rival formats popping up. It may risk losing the initiative,” Deen told a forum on the summit’s sidelines.

Supporters of Ukraine marked the talks with a series of events in the nearby city of Lucerne to draw attention to the war’s humanitarian costs.

Dozens of Ukrainian refugees from choirs around Switzerland converged in a public square to sing Beethoven’s “Ode to Joy.”

Earlier about 250 people gathered in the centre of the city, many wrapped in Ukrainian flags, wearing traditional clothes and carrying pictures of missing brothers, husbands or sons as they shared their stories.

“I’m clinging to the idea that my husband is still alive,” said Svitlana Bilous, the wife of a soldier who has been missing for more than 14 months. “That’s what keeps me going.”

 

China Premier Li starts Australia trip with Adelaide panda announcement, winery visit

SYDNEY (Reuters) – Australia’s Foreign Minister Penny Wong said on Sunday that China Premier Li Qiang’s visit to Australia was “really important” in showing stabilised ties between the two countries, after Li, China’s second-highest ranked official, arrived in Adelaide on Saturday.

Li touched down in the South Australia state capital late on Saturday, saying bilateral relations were “back on track” as he started a four-day visit to Australia, the first trip by a Chinese premier to the major trading partner in seven years.

China imposed trade restrictions on a raft of Australian agricultural and mineral products in 2020 during a diplomatic dispute that has now largely eased.

“This is obviously a really important visit, it’s the first visit in seven years by the Chinese premier,” Wong told Australian Broadcasting Corp. television on Sunday morning.

“It comes after two years of very deliberate, very patient work by this government to bring about a stabilisation of the relationship.”

In Adelaide on Sunday, Li is expected to visit a pair of pandas on loan from China to Adelaide’s zoo, then have lunch with wine exporters until recently shut out of the Chinese market in a dispute that suspended A$20 billion ($13 billion) in Australian agriculture and mineral exports last year.

Li will also visit the capital Canberra and iron-ore rich mining state Western Australia on the stopover.

Australia is the biggest supplier of iron ore to China, which has been an investor in Australian mining projects, though some recent Chinese investment in critical minerals has been blocked by Australia on national interest grounds.

Li arrived from New Zealand, where he highlighted Chinese demand for New Zealand’s agricultural products.

China is the biggest trading partner of Australia and New Zealand. Canberra and Wellington are seeking to balance trade with regional security concerns over China’s ambitions in the Pacific Islands.

 

Biden slams Supreme Court at $28 million fundraiser with Obama, Clooney, Julia Roberts

By Nandita Bose

(Reuters) -President Joe Biden will attend a glitzy fundraiser in Los Angeles on Saturday with top Hollywood celebrities and former President Barack Obama that has raised $28 million, amid Democratic anxiety over opponent Donald Trump’s growing fundraising clout.

Late-night TV host Jimmy Kimmel will interview Biden and Obama and Hollywood celebrities George Clooney and Julia Roberts are guests, in the latest star-studded event Biden’s campaign hopes shows strength and momentum despite Biden’s low approval ratings and concerns about his age.

Biden landed in Los Angeles on Saturday morning after attending a meeting of world leaders in Italy on Friday.

“This will be one of the biggest fundraisers we’ve had,” said Ajay Jain Bhutoria, deputy finance chair at the Democratic National Committee. “We are expecting an unprecedented turnout from the entertainment industry,” he said.

A Biden campaign spokeswoman said “$28 mln heading into President Biden’s LA fundraiser – and counting. This is the largest Democratic fundraiser in history.”

The Biden campaign outraised the $26 million a March fundraiser in New York City generated where Stephen Colbert hosted Biden, Obama and Bill Clinton. The top-ticket package for the LA event costs $500,000, campaign officials said.

Other celebrities expected on Saturday night in LA include Jack Black, Jason Bateman, Kathryn Hahn and Sheryl Lee Ralph.

In recent weeks, Mark Hamill of Star Wars fame made a White House briefing room appearance to praise the president, Robert DeNiro showed up in lower Manhattan for a press conference at the Biden campaign’s behest and Steven Spielberg has been helping the Biden campaign with storytelling.

Actor Michael Douglas held a fundraiser for the president and artists Queen Latifah, Lenny Kravitz, Lizzo, James Taylor, Christina Aguilera and Barbra Streisand have all performed to help Biden raise money.

Biden campaign’s fundraising in April lagged rival Donald Trump’s for the first time, after the former president ramped up his joint operation with the Republican National Committee and headlined high-dollar fundraisers.

Democrats still maintained an overall cash advantage over Trump and the Biden campaign continues to have a considerably larger war chest.

Biden and Trump are tied in national polls with less than five months to go before the Nov. 5 election, while Trump has the edge in the battleground states that will decide the election, recent polls show. On economic issues like inflation, Trump scores higher with voters overall than Biden.

Democrats have long counted on the liberal Los Angeles area as a rich source of financial backing. Republicans often decry Democrats nationwide as funded by Hollywood elites and California liberals.

But the state’s donors bankroll presidential campaigns on both sides of the aisle. Biden and Trump have both raised more in the state for their reelection bids than anywhere else, according to fundraising disclosures filed with the Federal Election Commission.

Biden raised $24 million through April 30 in California, and Trump $11.7 million, according to the Federal Election Commission.

The president was largely unable to host high-dollar Hollywood fundraisers for much of 2023 because of industry strikes. But since they were resolved, Biden has headlined several fundraisers in the state, including one in December where top tickets approached $1 million.

 

Why this beauty stock is a new top pick at Oppenheimer

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

© 2007-2024 – Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.

 

Summer oil rally possible but market may look past it: Macquarie

Macquarie analysts acknowledge the possibility of a summer crude oil rally but caution that the market might not be swayed in a note Friday.

They maintain a structurally bearish view of crude oil prices despite potential short-term upward pressure.

“[A] summer rally [is] possible, but [the] market may look past it, and draws could disappoint,” Macquarie states. The firm highlights surplus concerns in the second half of 2024 and throughout 2025, which could lead to a significant price correction.

While acknowledging geopolitical risks and potential for a hot summer boosting demand, Macquarie identifies several negative drivers. They express concern about OPEC+ compliance with production quotas, particularly in the context of US election year dynamics. Additionally, they foresee continued growth in non-OPEC oil production, including from the United States, potentially dampening prices.

Macquarie also tempers enthusiasm for potential production increases from new sources like the Dangote Refinery and Dos Bocas facilities, suggesting their ramp-up might be slower than anticipated. Finally, the report suggests China’s oil demand, particularly for diesel, is becoming less sensitive to economic growth, further limiting upside potential.

Overall, Macquarie’s analysis suggests a cautious approach to the possibility of a summer oil rally. They believe structural factors could lead to a price correction despite potential short-term upward pressure.

 

US rate cut bets heat up, but inflation reacceleration jitters to keep Fed wary

Risk Disclosure: Trading in financial instruments and/or cryptocurrencies involves high risks including the risk of losing some, or all, of your investment amount, and may not be suitable for all investors. Prices of cryptocurrencies are extremely volatile and may be affected by external factors such as financial, regulatory or political events. Trading on margin increases the financial risks.Before deciding to trade in financial instrument or cryptocurrencies you should be fully informed of the risks and costs associated with trading the financial markets, carefully consider your investment objectives, level of experience, and risk appetite, and seek professional advice where needed.Fusion Media would like to remind you that the data contained in this website is not necessarily real-time nor accurate. The data and prices on the website are not necessarily provided by any market or exchange, but may be provided by market makers, and so prices may not be accurate and may differ from the actual price at any given market, meaning prices are indicative and not appropriate for trading purposes. Fusion Media and any provider of the data contained in this website will not accept liability for any loss or damage as a result of your trading, or your reliance on the information contained within this website.It is prohibited to use, store, reproduce, display, modify, transmit or distribute the data contained in this website without the explicit prior written permission of Fusion Media and/or the data provider. All intellectual property rights are reserved by the providers and/or the exchange providing the data contained in this website.Fusion Media may be compensated by the advertisers that appear on the website, based on your interaction with the advertisements or advertisers.

© 2007-2024 – Fusion Media Limited. All Rights Reserved.

 

How much could immigration to the US decline before and after election: Goldman weighs in

In a recent note, Goldman Sachs economists have delved into the potential impacts of U.S. immigration policies before and after the upcoming election, examining scenarios under both a continued Biden administration and a potential second Trump administration.

Net immigration to the U.S. surged to approximately 2.5 million last year, significantly boosting labor force and GDP growth while helping to alleviate wage pressures. For 2024, Goldman Sachs estimates net immigration will total around 2 million, which is double the pre-pandemic trend rate.

The outlook, however, hinges on several pre- and post-election policy decisions. President Biden’s recent changes, announced on June 4, aim to restrict a channel that could potentially account for 700,000 immigrants annually at current unauthorized migration rates.

“However, we think the ultimate effect would be a fraction of this as most affected immigrants would likely attempt other modes of entry,” Goldman economists wrote. “Legal challenges to the new rules might even block implementation altogether.”

Should President Biden secure a second term, the administration is expected to maintain the current immigration policies with minimal changes. The new asylum restrictions, while intended to reduce net unauthorized immigration, face legal and logistical challenges “but could lower net unauthorized immigration and limit the potential for upside immigration surprises this year,” Goldman noted.

This policy would set a daily limit of 2,500 unauthorized migrants encountered outside official ports of entry, with any excess being expelled back across the border. Given the daily rate was reported at 3,500 in May, this limit is likely to be immediately met, meaning that US authorities “would expel apprehended migrants back across the border, rather than releasing many of them into the US to await a court date.”

Goldman Sachs notes that several groups are excluded from this policy, such as unaccompanied children, victims of severe trafficking, and other vulnerable migrants. Moreover, the policy does not apply to asylum seekers at official ports of entry, where many affected by the new policy are likely to redirect their efforts.

In contrast, a second Trump administration would likely pursue more aggressive immigration restrictions. The range of outcomes under this scenario is broad due to the potential for substantial policy shifts and legal battles.

Goldman Sachs outlines two primary scenarios for net immigration under Trump:

1) High-End Scenario: If courts block major changes to asylum policies and limit the impact of deportations, net immigration could decline to around 1.5 million in 2025. This figure is still roughly double the 2017-2019 average reported by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO).

2) Low-End Scenario: If the Trump administration successfully implements substantial cuts to asylum claims and humanitarian parole, and enacts a more extensive deportation program, net immigration could fall below the 2017-2019 average of 700,000 per year and potentially approach zero temporarily.

“​​That said, it seems unlikely that net immigration would be negative on an annual basis even in that scenario,” economists argued.

The Trump administration’s proposed deportations face the highest uncertainty, with potential removals ranging from 300,000 to 2.1 million in 2025, according to Goldman.