Exclusive-Russia raises forecast for 2024 oil, gas export revenues by $17.4 billion, document shows

By Darya Korsunskaya

(Reuters) – Russia’s economy ministry has revised up its 2024 forecasts for export sales of oil and gas, key sources of budget revenues, by $17.4 billion from the previous estimate to $239.7 billion thanks to a more positive price outlook, a document seen by Reuters showed.

The improved expectations for Russia’s oil and gas business underscore how the West has struggled to inflict lasting damage on Russia’s economy through unprecedented sanctions, including oil price caps and import restrictions, over Moscow’s war with Ukraine.

The document showed that Russian crude oil exports are seen rising to 239.9 million metric tons (4.8 million barrels per day) this year from 238.3 million tons in 2023.

The ministry also expects the average price of Russian oil sold for export to rise this year to $70 per barrel, a $5 upward revision from an estimate made in April. This is also up from $64.5 in 2023 and above the price cap of $60 per barrel imposed by the West.

Natural gas prices were also revised up, for sales in both Europe and China.

Russia has managed to divert much of its business away from Europe since its invasion of Ukraine, ramping up trade with China and India.

The revisions ultimately mean higher revenues. Earning nearly $240 billion from oil and gas exports this year would represent a $13 billion increase on 2023. In 2025, the forecast was also raised, to $236.5 billion from $226.2 billion in the previous forecast.

OIL OUTPUT DOWN

Russian President Vladimir Putin on Thursday said the global economy would fail without Russia’s oil and gas.

Speaking at an economic forum in Russia’s Far East, he said that Moscow planned to keep pumping gas via Ukraine to the European Union but that Russia could not force Kyiv to keep the transit agreement which expires at the end of this year.

Russia expects gas output to increase each year until 2030, the limit of current forecasts, but the ministry revised down expectations for both oil production and the overall volume of energy exports.

Russia is participating in efforts, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its allies, to curb oil output to prop up the volatile market.

In the updated estimates, Russian oil production is seen declining to 521.3 million tons this year from 529.6 million tons in 2023 and down by 1.7 million tons from the previous estimate.

The prospects for oil output in 2025 were reduced, according to the economy ministry, with production seen declining further to 518.6 million tons, a reduction of 11.4 million tons on the previous forecast.