Seven key states to determine US election outcome

Investing.com — As the 2024 U.S. Presidential election approaches, analysts at TD Securities have identified seven key states that will play a crucial role in determining the outcome. 

These states, a mix of traditional swing states and newer battlegrounds, are pivotal due to their unique demographic compositions, recent political trends, and their combined electoral significance.

Arizona

Arizona has emerged as a critical battleground with competitive races at both the presidential and congressional levels. 

Historically a Republican stronghold, the state has seen a shift towards the Democratic Party, particularly in urban areas like Phoenix. 

The outcome here will hinge on key issues such as immigration, healthcare, and the state’s near-total abortion ban, which was recently overturned.

 The gubernatorial race, which Democrats won in the midterms, will also provide insights into the state’s political direction.

Georgia

Georgia, a traditionally Republican state, flipped to the Democratic column in the 2020 election for the first time since 1992. 

This trend has made Georgia a focal point for both parties in 2024. The state’s growing suburban population, particularly around Atlanta, is increasingly diverse and has been leaning Democratic. 

However, former President Trump’s continued influence in the state and his attacks on the GOP Governor could affect voter turnout and preferences, making this a highly unpredictable contest.

Michigan 

Michigan is another key state with a diverse electorate, including significant Arab-American populations in cities like Dearborn and Detroit. 

The state’s economy, heavily reliant on the automotive industry, has been a central issue in recent elections. Additionally, Harris’ endorsement by the United Auto Workers (UAW) union could be a decisive factor. Foreign policy, especially concerning Israel-Gaza, is also expected to play a significant role in influencing voters in this state.

North Carolina

North Carolina has been a closely contested state in recent elections, with President Obama narrowly winning it in 2008. 

The state’s political landscape is marked by a mix of urban liberal enclaves and conservative rural areas. The gubernatorial race is expected to favor Democrats, which could provide a boost to Harris’ campaign. 

The state’s demographic changes, particularly with an influx of younger, more progressive voters in urban areas, will be crucial in determining the outcome.

Nevada 

Nevada is another state where demographic shifts, particularly among the Latino population, will be key to the election outcome. 

The state has been leaning Democratic in recent presidential elections, but the margin of victory has been slim. 

Both parties are expected to heavily court Latino voters, who make up a significant portion of the electorate. 

The presence of a bellwether Senate race in the state adds another layer of complexity to the presidential contest.

Pennsylvania 

Pennsylvania is arguably the most critical state in the 2024 election. With 19 electoral votes, it is often seen as a must-win for both parties. 

The state has a diverse electorate with significant rural, suburban, and urban populations. 

Philadelphia’s suburbs, in particular, are a key battleground, with trends in these areas likely determining the overall outcome in the state. 

Democrats performed well in the 2022 midterms here, but the electorate will be different in a presidential year, making the outcome uncertain.

Wisconsin 

Wisconsin rounds out the list of key states, with its suburban areas around Milwaukee being some of the most critical regions to watch.

Like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin has a diverse electorate that includes both rural conservative voters and urban liberal voters. 

The outcome in Wisconsin is likely to be decided by voter turnout in these suburban areas, making it another essential state for both Harris and Trump.