Lower rates may spur higher levels of M&A activity in coming quarters

Lower interest rates could lead to a surge in mergers & acquisitions (M&A) activity in the coming quarters, strategists at Wells Fargo said in a recent report.

The investment bank notes that M&A activity remains below long-term averages but has shown modest improvement from the lows experienced in early 2023. This uptick is partly attributed to growing confidence that the Federal Reserve may achieve a softer economic landing.

Further, the increasing likelihood of interest rate cuts starting in late 2024 and continuing into 2025 has fueled optimism among investors that deal activity could rise as financing conditions become more favorable.

In most mergers, the acquiring company typically offers a premium over the target company’s current stock price. While the majority of the price difference (or spread) between the offering price and the current price closes quickly following the announcement, a portion of the premium usually remains, hinging on the successful completion of the merger.

According to Wells Fargo, most Merger Arbitrage strategies aim to capture this post-announcement spread.

“The primary drivers of these strategies include the size of the residual premium, the time it takes to complete the merger, and the risk that a merger may not be finalized,” strategists said.

“Current premiums and the length of time required to close a deal have remained in-line with longer-term averages, yet deal activity has been slow to recover,” they added.

They suggest that the current high-interest rate environment, coupled with corporate leaders’ lack of confidence and sluggish economic growth, could be factors contributing to the slow pace of deal activity.

“We continue to look for green shoots, and a more accommodative financing environment may be enough to spawn greater levels of activity in the coming quarters,” the note concludes.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell signaled on Friday that interest rate cuts are on the horizon, though he refrained from specifying the timing or scale of the reductions.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell stated during his keynote address at the Fed’s annual Jackson Hole conference in Wyoming.

“The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

As markets looked for clues on future monetary policy, Powell reviewed the factors that led to the Fed’s 11 rate hikes between March 2022 and July 2023. He also acknowledged progress in curbing inflation, indicating the Fed can now give equal attention to maintaining full employment.