Institutional investors bought the dip, retail traders sold aggressively

Retail investors were aggressive net sellers on Monday following the sharp equities pullback, with most of the selling occurring in the first hour of trading, JPMorgan strategists noted.

The retail order imbalance ended the day at -$1 billion, which is -2.5 standard deviations below the 12-month average. Inflows into ETFs of $472 million were outweighed by outflows from individual stocks at -$1.4 billion.

Institutional investors, on the other hand, bought the dip with +$14 billion in net buying (+2.9 standard deviations above the 12-month average) during market hours and -$6.7 billion in Market on Close (MOC) trades.

There was also strong demand for S&P ETFs, JPMorgan said, indicated by a $430 million inflow into Vanguard S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:VOO), SPDR® S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY), and iShares Core S&P 500 ETF (NYSE:IVV), which were +7.6, +1.2, and +2.6 standard deviations above their respective 12-month averages.

In contrast, retail investors were significant sellers of Nasdaq 100 ETFs. Fixed-income ETFs also saw bearish flows, led by TMF and SPDR® Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (NYSE:BIL).

Strategists pointed out that the current downtrend has not altered Retail’s longer-term positioning.

“We estimate retail investor performance has declined by 10% since the peak in US equities as of today (vs. 8.5% drop in the S&P). Year-to-date, their portfolio is down by -4.9%,” they wrote.

U.S. stocks experienced significant losses on Monday, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 each dropping over 3%. The drop continued last week’s sell-off driven by recession fears and a sharp decline in Apple shares (NASDAQ:AAPL) after a major investor reduced its stake.

All three major indexes recorded their largest three-day percentage declines since June 2022, with the Nasdaq and S&P 500 hitting their lowest points since early May.

The fears of a recession rattled global markets, prompting investors to exit risky assets following weak economic data, including Friday’s disappointing U.S. payroll report.

Investors are concerned that the economy is slowing faster than expected and that the Federal Reserve may have made a mistake by keeping interest rates steady at its last policy meeting.