Day: April 2, 2023

(C) Reuters. FILE PHOTO: National Coalition Party chair Petteri Orpo talks with voters as he campaigns, ahead of Finnish parliamentary elections on Sunday April 2, in Vantaa, Finland, March 31, 2023. ANTTI AIMO-KOIVISTO/Lehtikuva/via REUTERS

HELSINKI (Reuters) – Here is a profile of Finland’s conservative National Coalition Party leader Petteri Orpo, who said he would have the first chance of forming a coalition government after his party looked set to win the most seats in parliament in Sunday’s election.

FISCAL CONSERVATIVE

Born in 1969 in rural south-west Finland, the 53-year-old Orpo has a university degree in political science.

He has been a member of parliament since 2007 and became head of the National Coalition in 2016 after challenging his predecessor Alexander Stubb, a former prime minister, for the party leadership.

Considered a moderate and a smooth negotiator, Orpo has held several government posts, including as minister of agriculture and forestry from 2014 to 2015, interior minister from 2015 to 2016 and finance minister from 2016 to 2019.

He earned praise across most of Finland’s political spectrum for his handling as interior minister of the 2015 migration crisis in Europe, when the Nordic nation saw a tenfold increase in refugee arrivals.

A self-styled fiscal conservative, he aims to cut spending on unemployment benefits and other welfare programmes to reduce the government’s budget deficit and make room for tax cuts aimed at boosting economic growth.

Orpo has kept his options open with regards to which parties he may govern with after the election, including his main rivals for the top job, outgoing Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats and nationalist Finns Party leader Riikka Purra.

Married and with two children, he is also a reserve officer in Finland’s national defence force.

(C) Reuters. FILE PHOTO: Finnish Prime Minister, Chair of the Social Democratic Party (SDP) Sanna Marin poses for a selfie during her elections rally, ahead of the April 2 Finish parliamentary elections in Vantaa, Finland, March 31, 2023. Lehtikuva/Vesa Moilanen via R

By Anne Kauranen and Essi Lehto

HELSINKI (Reuters) – Finland’s opposition right-wing National Coalition Party (NCP) was on track to narrowly win Sunday’s parliamentary election in a tight three-way race, public broadcaster Yle projected, with 71% of votes counted.

The NCP was seen winning 48 of the 200 seats in parliament, ahead of the nationalist Finns Party with 46 seats and Prime Minister Sanna Marin’s Social Democrats on 43 seats, Yle’s projection showed.

“My thought is that those are really heavy numbers on the screen … a strong mandate for our politics,” NCP leader Petteri Orpo told Yle after seeing the prediction.

The leader of the largest group in parliament gets the first chance at forming a coalition to obtain a majority, meaning Marin’s time as prime minister could be about to come to an end.

Marin, 37, the world’s youngest prime minister when she took office in 2019, is considered by fans around the globe as a millennial role model for progressive new leaders, but at home she has faced criticism for her partying and her government’s public spending.

The NCP has led in polls for almost two years although its lead had melted away in recent months. It has promised to curb spending and stop the rise of public debt, which has reached just over 70% of GDP since Marin took office in 2019.

Orpo accused Marin of eroding Finland’s economic resilience at a time when Europe’s energy crisis, driven by Russia’s war in Ukraine, has hit the country hard and the cost of living has increased.

Orpo has said he will negotiate with all groups to obtain a majority in parliament, while Marin has said her Social Democrats may govern with the NCP but will not go into government with the Finns Party.

Marin called the Finns Party “openly racist” during a debate in January – an accusation the nationalist group rejected.

The Finns Party’s main goal is to reduce what leader Riikka Purra has called “harmful” immigration from developing countries outside the European Union. It also calls for austerity policies to curb deficit spending, a stance it shares with the NCP.

(C) Reuters

By Noreen Burke

Investing.com — The week ahead will bring the all-important U.S. monthly jobs report while equity markets embark on the second quarter, OPEC meets and central banks in Australia and New Zealand are to deliver their latest interest rate decisions.

Nonfarm payrolls

Market watchers will be looking at Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report for a fresh update on the health of a labor market which has remained robust over the past year in the face of a barrage of rate hikes by the Federal Reserve.

Economists are expecting the U.S. economy to have added 238,000 jobs in March after an increase of 311,000 in February. Average hourly earnings are forecast to have increased at an annual rate of 4.3%, which would be the slowest rate since July 2021.

The March employment report will be the last before the Fed’s upcoming May meeting, with investors split over whether policymakers will raise rates one last time. An increase above 200,000 in terms of jobs creation is likely to bolster expectations for a 25-basis point rate hike.

Fed officials have indicated that they expect rates to remain around current levels for the rest of this year to help combat inflation.

Other data, Fedspeak

Ahead of Friday’s all important March jobs report the economic calendar includes reports on February job openings on Tuesday and March data on private sector hiring on Wednesday.

ISM purchasing managers surveys of manufacturing and service sector activity are due out on Monday and Wednesday, respectively.

Several Fed policymakers are due to make appearances during the week, including Cleveland Fed President Loretta Mester, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and Fed Governor Lisa Cook.

Fed officials have indicated that they expect rates to remain around current levels for the rest of this year to help bring inflation back down to the bank’s 2% target. But, while inflationary pressures remain elevated officials will also have to weigh the effect of higher interest rates on financial stability after the recent turmoil in the banking sector.

Equity markets

U.S. equity markets posted solid gains in the first quarter despite a steep selloff in bank stocks after the collapse of two regional banks sparked fears over a broader financial crisis.

The Nasdaq gained 16.8% for its largest quarterly percentage increase since 2020. The S&P 500 rose 7%, rebounding after a nearly 20% drop in 2022 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average ended the quarter up 0.4%.

Wary investors say those gains leave stocks more vulnerable to an economic downturn, which may have been brought closer by tumult in the banking sector.

To what extent equities have factored in a possible recession – and whether the economy will experience one – has been a point of contention on Wall Street.

“The answer is emphatically no, the market is not priced for a recession at all,” said Hans Olsen, chief investment officer at Fiduciary Trust Co, which is guarding against future market turbulence by holding higher than typical amounts of cash. For stocks, “it means that we could be in for some very nasty surprises over the coming quarters.”

OPEC meeting

OPEC+ is likely to stick to its existing deal to cut oil output at a meeting on Monday, Reuters reported, after oil prices recovered following a drop to 15-month lows.

Oil has recovered towards $80 a barrel for Brent crude after falling to near $70 on March 20, as fears ease about a global banking crisis and as a halt in exports from Iraq’s Kurdistan region curbs supplies.

OPEC+, which comprises the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies led by Russia, is due to hold a virtual meeting of its ministerial monitoring panel, which includes Russia and Saudi Arabia, on Monday.

After those talks, the next full OPEC+ meeting is not until June.

Falling oil prices are a problem for most OPEC+ members because their economies rely heavily on oil revenue.

RBA, RBNZ interest rate decisions

The Reserve Bank of Australia is to meet on Tuesday with a decision on whether to hike or hold rates on a knife edge.

Data last week showed that Australian inflation slowed to an eight month low of 6.8% year-over-year in February, prompting investors to pretty much rule out chances for a 25-basis point rate hike.

RBA Governor Philip Lowe has said the central bank was closer to pausing its rate increases because monetary policy was now in restrictive territory, and suggested a halt could come as soon as April depending on the data.

Meanwhile, markets are still betting on another 25-basis point rate hike from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand when it meets on Wednesday.

–Reuters contributed to this report